Impacts of Climate change on settlements in the Western Port Region: People, Property and Places.

Published by the Commonwealth Science and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Australia and Marsden Jacob Associates

Scope:Examines the nature and extent of potential impacts of climate change to the Western Port region of Victoria. Focus on the environmental, social and economic implications.

Main Conclusion: Western Port region is significantly exposed to climate extremes and natural hazards, such as storm surges, floods and bushfires, that are projected to increase in severity and/or frequency. Climate change projected to increase the threat of natural hazards to the region. Low income earners are especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, since they are over represented in may of the localities exposed to coastal inundation.

Consquences of Climate Change:

Sea-level rise in future decades will undoubtedly affect the coastline, driving progressive erosion in many locations. Most pronounced during storm events.

• CSIRO assessment suggests current 1 in 100 year storm surge will become a 1 in 1 to 1 in 4 year storm surge in 2070.
• Storm surges would affect approx. 2000 individuals, 1000 dwellings and approx. $780m in property.
• Beaches, boating facilities and major roads such as Nepean Hwy will be affected.

Extreme rainfall events to increase by 25% by 2030 and up to 70% by 2070. This will drive increases in frequency or magnitude of flood events.

• 18% of Western Port region lie in land area subject to flooding.
• Approx 18,000 properties, of which 13,000 are residential, and almost $2 billion capital vulnerable to floods.

Trend in worsening fire weather conditions, modelling indicates the number of days of ‘very high’ or ‘extreme’ forest fire risk to increase by 1 to 2 days in 2030 and by 2 to 7 days in 2050, an increase of 60%.

• 21% of Western Port region is bushfire prone, over 73,000 individuals; 35,000 properties, $7.6 billion in capital.
• Also at risk are major roads and rail, and electricity transmission lines from the Latrobe Valley providing Melbourne.

Average rainfall is projected to decline by up to 8% by 2030 and 23% by 2070, with reductions especially in winter and spring. Impact on:

• Waterways, wetland and coastal estuarine health.
• The viability of maintaining domestic gardens, parks and sporting fields.

The full-cost economics of climate change Aluminium: a case study.

Published by David Hetherington, Per Capita

Scope:A full cost economics approach to climate change adaptation for the aluminium industry, as an illustrate case study on the complexity of the policy challenge.

Main Conclusion: Aluminium industry requires assistance and time to reduce its carbon emission exposure, and the social-economic impact on communities based around the aluminium industry needs to be considered.

Consquences of Climate Change:

That government and the aluminium industry must work together to ensure the sector delivers an appropriate balance between meeting carbon reduction obligations and continuing to provide high-value employment.

Aluminium industry generates over $10b in exports (2006-07) and is over 5% over Australia’s total export values.Cost to the community of aluminium plant closers is estimated to range from $285m to $1.124b; against an estimated carbon emission value of $861m per year.In some scenarios carbon savings from plant closures exceed the social value of the jobs. In other cases not.

Recommends the following:

• Aluminium industry be partially exempted from an emission trading scheme for max. of 5 years.
• Al industry uses this exemption to aggressively invest in its own carbon-neutral energy sources.
• Al industry should meet future demand growth through efficiency gains including recycling.
• Government should offer income tax credits for each additional employee hired (not related to climate change).

Fuel for thought: the future of transport fuels: challenges and opportunities.

Published by the Commonwealth Science and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Australia

Scope:To explore scenarios and conduct quantitative modelling, so as to inform policy and investment decision making on transport fuel challenges.

Main Conclusion:Declining world oil supplies increases the need for alternatives to be implemented across the transport sector. Australia is heavily exposed to oil supply, with cost to the transport sector linked to oil supply/demand. The cost of an emission trading scheme on fuel price is unlikely to significantly affect the transport sector, nor the average motorist.

Consquences:

• Australia’s transport fuel mix will substantially change in response to increasing cost of oil and need to reduce greenhouse gas emission.
• In next 10 years, electricity, LPG and natural gas will be the first fuels to expand in use, particularly if an abrupt decline in oil supplies occurs.
• Beyond 2020, advances biofuels (that have limited competition with food production and synthetic fuels) are expected to come into production, once infrastructure has had sufficient time to scale up.
• Introduction of emission trading alone unlikely to radically change the transport sector. A$100/tCO2e permit price will increase cost of fuel by around A$0.25/L.
• Modelling of an emission trading scheme indicates it will lead to a steady shift toward low emission fuels and vehicles.
• Australia is more vulnerable to changing fuel market circumstances than other countries – 97% reliance on oil-based fuels for transport and declining domestic reserves.
• Average weekly fuel bill of A$40 in 2007 projected to increase to between A$50 to A$220 per week (real terms) by 2018. The high end will only occur if international oil supplies abruptly decline and alternative supplies and technologies are not quickly implemented.
• Likely to be only moderate preparations by individuals and businesses in relation to decline in oil supplies, due to the uncertainty surrounding such an event.

Climate change law for planners, developers, local government and greenies: A quick stock take and some ideas for the future.

Published by Philippa England, Griffith University

Scope:Summaries the efforts of Australian institutions to mitigate and adapt to climate change to date.

Main Conclusion: Australian local and state governments as well as the judiciary have been some bold strides in the area of climate change. That local and state government have taken initiatives on climate change early, suggested as a response to the previous poor leadership at the federal level.

Outcomes:

• Cities for Climate Protection Program involves 178 Australian local councils undertaking mitigation projects that have stopped ~13.3 million tones of CO2-e since 1997.
• Building Code of Australia revised in 2006 to include more stringent energy rating requirements for new homes. More stringent standards at the state level.
• Adaptation at the local and state government levels is aimed at water security, particular in South East Queensland.
• Judicial principle of intergenerational equity – forcing the inclusion of consideration of the impact on greenhouse gas emissions arising from developments.

Green Carbon: The role of natural forests in carbon storage.

Published by Brendan Mackey, Heather Keith, Sandra Berry, David Lindenmayer; Fenner School of Environemtn & Society, Australian National University

Scope:Researches how much carbon can natural forests store when undisturbed in the eucalypt forests of south-eastern Australia.

Main Conclusion: The green carbon stored in the forests of south-eastern Australia is underestimated, and that natural forests undisturbed can store considerably more carbon. Natural forests play a significant role in storing carbon and they need to be accounted for in a strategy to prevent climate change. It is also an argument against commercial logging.

Outcomes:

• Natural forests are more resilient to climate change and disturbances than plantations, because of biodiversity.
• Natural forests are a more reliable storage of green carbon than industrialized forests, especially over ecological timescales.
• Carbon stocks in forests subjected to commercial logging or a monoculture plantation have on average ~40-60% less than in a natural undisturbed forest.
• Natural forests in south-eastern Australia have an average 640 t of carbon per hectare of total biomass (plus soil). The highest, of over 2000 t of carbon per ha, is the mountain ash forest in the central highlands of Victoria and Tasmania.
• Found that the Australian Government’s National Carbon Accounting System underestimated the carbon carrying capacity of natural forests.
• The 14.5 million ha of eucalypt forests in south-eastern Australia; the effect of retaining the current carbon stock is equivalent to avoided missions of 460 Mt CO2 per yr for the next 100: if logging is realised, it becomes 136 Mt CO2 per yr for the next 100 years.
• If all carbon currently stored in eucalypt forests was released would raise CO2 levels by 3.3ppm.

Australia’s 2020 Carbon Pollution Reduction Potential.

Published by The Climate Institute

Scope:Preliminary snapshot of one scenario on how Australia can achieve a 25% reduction in emissions below 1990 levels by 2020.

Main Conclusion: Achieving target reductions in CO2 emissions by 2020 can be achievable, with many of the abatement options achieving a net saving to the economy. However, significant capital expenditure will be required. Use of the ‘Australian Emission Reduction Model’ shows that through key strategies and technologies significant reductions can be made.

Outcomes:

• Australia has abundant low cost abatement options. More than half of abatement options can be achieved at a net saving to the economy. Mostly due to improved energy efficiency.
• Of the remaining abatement options, a quarter can be delivered for less than $50 per tonne CO2, with less than 7% of options costing more than $100 per tonne CO2.
• Achieving these reductions requires significant capital expenditure, the energy sector alone will require an additional investment of $46.6 billion by 2020.
• The abatement strategies providing the largest reduction in CO2 emissions:
• Investing in energy efficiency – assuming world’s best practice energy performance – 98 Mt CO2-e in 2020.
• Improved fossil fuel generation – switching from coal to high efficiency gas – 27 Mt CO2-e in 2020.
• Investment in public transport, urban design and travel demand management – assuming world class public transport system – 13 Mt CO2-e in 2020.
• Lowering livestock emissions, increased use of selected breeding to manage enteric fermentation – 22 Mt CO2-e in 2020.
• Reducing land clearing – reduction by 50% below business as usual by 2020 – 22 Mt CO2-e in 2020.

Climate Impacts and Emission Targets.

Published by The Climate Institute

Scope:Summaries the implications of different carbon pollution reduction targets and projected national and state-level impacts, and provides details of the impact of different CO2 levels.

Conclusions:

450ppm CO2 level (1.8-2.3oC increase by 2100)

• 6% decline in value of agricultural production of Murray-Darling Basin.
• Mass bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef twice as common as today.
• Vertebrate animals in Queensland wet tropics lose 90% of habitat.

550ppm CO2 level (2.3-2.8oC increase by 2100)

• 20% decline in value of agricultural production of Murray-Darling Basin.
• 100-300% increase in extreme fire weather.
• Disappearance of the Great Barrier Reef ‘as we know it’.
• 80% of Kakadu wetlands lost to sea level rise.

Unmitigated (5-6.3oC increase by 2100)

• 92% decline in valve of agricultural production of Murray-Darling Basin.
• 5.5 million at risk from dengue fever.
• Catastrophic destruction of the Great Barrier Reef.
• Snow based tourism in Australia likely to have disappeared.
• Extreme impact of water supply infrastructure in all states.
• Extreme impact on coastal settlements in Queensland, NSW, WA and Victoria.

Getting Real about adapting to Climate Change: Using ‘real options’ to address the uncertainties.

Published by Leo Dobes, Australian National University

Scope:Argues for an adaptation strategy that is based on the uncertainties in changes to local environment, which allows communities to be “fitted for but not with” required infrastructure.

Main Conclusion: Adaptation infrastructure strategies can be partially implemented now, as a way of reducing initial costs associated with responding to climate change, which can be build-up if it because a problem. Discussion on adaptation strategies that implement partial responses to climate change. As an approach to reduce the cost of adaptation, considering the uncertainties on how climate change will affect specific locations. “Real Option” approach reduces the initial capital expenditure of adaptation, but affords communities the option of a quick transition if climate change leads to detrimental effects. An example, flood prone areas, instead of building a high protective barrier, it is worthwhile to construct the base of the wall or embankment now – allowing the option to build a higher wall later if required.

Capturing the European energy productivity opportunity.

Published by McKinsey Global Institute

Scope:Outlines Europe’s potential to increase energy productivity, reducing cost to industry and CO2 emissions.

Main Conclusion: European energy demand growth can be offset by improvements in energy productivity through increased energy efficiency, while will reduce costs and CO2 emissions. Europe has significant potential to improve energy efficiency, and become the recognized world leader in energy efficiency.

Outcomes:

• European energy demand will grow 1.2% a year to 2020.
• With companies fully engaged in boosting energy productivity (output achieved from the energy consumed), Europe could hold energy demand at today’s levels.
• The full potential of boosting energy productivity would abate energy demand equivalent to 8 million barrels of oil per day.
• Solely using available technologies, Europe could at the same time reduce greenhouse gas emissions by almost 1 billion tons in 2020 – more than the combined CO2 emissions of the UK and France.
• European commission estimates Europe wastes at least 20% of its energy.
• Europe is in a strong position to act as catalyst in promoting higher energy productivity around the world.

Issues Paper: Review of the Queensland Government climate change strategy.

Published by Queensland Government

Scope:Develop Queensland Government’s mitigation and adaptation measures, and strategically position Queensland in the national climate change response. Outlines how climate change will affect Queensland and the impact on various sectors.

Main Conclusion:

Queensland’s climate change challenges are:

• Drive significant greenhouse gas emission reductions.
• Build the states skills and knowledge base.
• Prepare Queenslanders for the impact of climate change.
• Support new technology that will assist Queensland producers and consumers transition to low carbon economy.
• Ensure the costs of climate change are distributed equitably.

Climate change impacts on Queensland:

• At 450ppm – Great Barrier Reef exposed to massive coral bleaching.
• At 550ppm – GBR could disappear and be replaced by seaweed and soft corals.
• Export oriented mining and agricultural sectors expected to be adversely impacted.
• No-mitigation scenario by 2100, Queensland will suffer up to 4000 additional deaths per annum from heat.
• Expansion of geographical range of Dengue virus to southern Queensland.
• Wet Tropics of far north Queensland likely to face high levels of extinction under an expected 1oC temperature rise by 2030.
• Research suggests tropical cyclones may move further south, hitting coastline with greater intensity, potentially causing many billions of dollars to the Sunshine Coast, Gold Coast and Brisbane.

Queensland energy needed expect to grow by 3.2% per annum to 2015.

• Achieved through gas as a transition fuel.
• Considerable energy potential from solar thermal technology.

Rebuttal to the "Skeptics Handbook"

Published by Joanne Nova

This is in response to the misleading use of scientific evidence put forward in this document to discredit the link between CO2 emissions and climate change

As a scientific body, we have no issue with opinions that differ from mainstream scientifically accepted beliefs, as long as there is evidence to support that opinion. We strongly oppose the distortion of scientific evidence to fit a preconceived opinion. Hence, our rebuttal to this document.

Response to Point 1: “The greenhouse signature is missing”

The comparison of the two data sets is incorrect, based on time-period.

• The IPCC models are determining the temperature change between 1890 – 1999 (a period of 109 years).
• The HadAT2 radiosonde observation data covers the period 1979-1999 (a period of 20 years).
• IPCC models a 1.2oC rise over 109 years, HadAT2 data has a 0.2oC rise over 20 years.
• So a 0.2oC in 20 years, equates to a rise of 1.09oC over 109 years.

Response to Point 3: “The world is not warming any more”

The quoted data could not be found at the referenced source: CDIAC, Carbon dioxide information analysis center.

The published data comes from Vostok ice cores and other sources clearly and shows the trend between rising CO2 levels followed by rising temperatures.

Response to Point 3: “The world is not warming any more”

Comparison timeframe is incorrect. Climate trends are monitored over decades, not between individual years.

• Natural variation in weather will lead to some years being hotter or cooler than preceding years. I.e. some have a hot summer with long heat waves, while other years having a cold winters with a lot of snow.
• Climate trends show up over a decade or longer period. For example, we have more heat waves during summer than we did in the 1980s, and less snow fall in Australia. – this is a trend of rising temperatures.

Response to Point 4: “Carbon dioxide is already absorbing almost all it can”

The interaction between infrared with CO2 is well-known – the logarithmic relationship is accounted for in the theory.

Carbon dioxide ability to absorb the infra red radiation coming from the Earth is not influenced by

• Convection
• Magnetic influences
• Other gases
• Orbital effects
• Turbulence
• Temperature

The interaction between carbon dioxide and infra red happens on the molecular level, at such a small level these quoted influences have absolute no effect. These human sized phenomena have no impact on the behavior of a molecule of CO2.